Craig Stevens Jersey
but it is officially time for the Phillies to start acting
On Opening Day, I laid out the blueprint the Phillies would need to follow in order to secure one of the five playoff spots in the National League. There were five requirements:
1) Roy Halladay makes 32 starts.
Brown, Hamels and Lee have held up their ends of the bargain, so credit the Phillies with oneandahalf. But Halladay is on the disabled list, Michael Young has a .357 slugging percentage despite spending most of the year batting third or fifth, Delmon Young has 30 strikeouts and six home runs in 116 at bats with a .224/.281/.422 line, and Jeremy Horst, Chad Durbin, Raul Valdes and Phillippe Aumont have been huge disappointments (meanwhile, Mike Adams has looked lessthanreliable for much of the last month and has allowed five home runs in 21 1/3 innings on the season).
The Phillies are 3134, but the headline is that they are fortunate to even be there (their Pythagorean WL record is 2837, for those who care about such things). That's because the biggest thing to go wrong injuries to Halladay and Lannan and some earlyseason struggled by Hamels has yet to really go wrong. But it will. Tonight, Tyler Cloyd is the man charged with preventing the Phillies from losing their fifth straight game against a putrid team (we can't say "last place" team any more because the Twins beat the Phillies and the White Sox lost, putting Chicago in last place by a game in the AL Central).
At some point, Jonathan Pettibone's results are going to start to mirror his numbers, which have been pretty mediocre in every respect except runs allowed. And ERA has a funny way of correcting itself. It might already have begun to happen, as Pettione has allowed 12 runs in his last 16 1/3 innings, including six in a 91 loss to Milwaukee on June 9. That's not to take away from what he has accomplished he has thrown strikes, managed the game, and looked more like a major leaguer than a lot of us expected. But opponents are hitting .279 with a .349 OBP and .430 slugging percentage, and while his 0.86 ground ball rate is not awful, it also isn't good enough for a guy that has 37 strikeouts, 20 walks, 5 HBPs and seven home runs in 58 1/3 innings. Right now, Pettibone looks like a Craig Stevens Jersey 4.25 to 4.75 ERA starter. And you have to think that the results will eventually show it. Likewise, Cloyd has pitched much better than a lot expected, but he still isn't the kind of guy you want to see charged with stopping a losing streak. Neither does Las Vegas, which has the Twins as the money line favorite (115) with Mike Pelfrey on the mound tonight.
So the Phillies are who we thought they were. If nothing breaks extremely right or extremely wrong, they will spend the season hovering around .500, ending up somewhere below their preseason over/under of 83.5. At this point, we are running low on things that can break extremely right (Ryan Howard catches fire, Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley do the same after returning from the disabled list). That's probably for the better, because the worst thing that could have happened is for the Phillies to give their bosses just enough of a glimmer of hope to prevent them from acting in the best interest of the future. Now, though, you have to think that Ruben Amaro Jr....